Update on Friday evening’s weather
I don’t have much in the way of changes from what I mentioned yesterday. Even if the sun tries to make a bit of an appearance in the mid or late afternoon, temperatures will trend a little cooler in the 70s for highs over most of the area – but with a number of other variables still on track, the severe threat this evening won’t be deterred quite that easily.
While a supercell thunderstorm is still possible around here this evening, I feel the best chances for that by far will be west and northwest of here – Iowa City, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa areas, for example. The individual severe thunderstorms that form out there may then form into a cluster or two of severe thunderstorm complexes that move either eastward or southeastward. – They could start out moving eastward and then turn increasingly southeastward through the late evening.
Depending on how things initially come together, the storms could then arrive in the Mount Pleasant to Bonaparte to Keosauqua area between 7:00pm and 10:00pm. Large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado would all be possible threats – in that order.
Later, as storms continue to group together, the developing thunderstorm cluster or clusters could impact anywhere between the Quad Cities and Burlington, Fort Madison, Keokuk, Kahoka, and Memphis by late this evening – looking to be between 8:00pm and 1:00am, with the middle of that time frame around 10:00pm carrying the highest chance of when these would come through. Right now, I think Burlington and points southward will be the favored track. We’ll need to keep an eye on how this initially comes together west and northwest of us. These storms could bring damaging winds, large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but I think most areas would be done with the brunt of the storminess within an hour or so after it begins in your location.
Later yet, the thunderstorms would likely continue into West-central Illinois and East-central Missouri – becoming increasingly prolific rain producers but losing severe capabilities.
We’ll see how the afternoon unfolds, and I’ll let you know if things change. This is one of those “it wouldn’t be our worst weather event ever but it could have a ‘surprise’ or two” type deals – like July 19th.