A severe thunderstorm as it rolled into Carthage, Illinois on June 28, 2018; high, straight-line winds hit shortly after this photo was captured. / Photo credit: Amanda Bolte
For the Friday, August 24th update, click here.
A severe weather setup suggestive of damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be coming together over Eastern Iowa on Friday evening.
Cloudiness and some rain and thundershowers will persist into Friday morning and possibly even early afternoon across Eastern Iowa. A warm front will be moving northward through the afternoon, camping out over Southeast Iowa and West-central Illinois into Friday evening. Highs will vary around 80, depending on cloud cover and our proximity to the warm front throughout the afternoon.
Later in the day, new storms could very well be inhibited through much of the afternoon and evening, but eventually the area near the warm front could become a battleground for bad weather. Most recently, I’m reminded of the Thursday, July 19, 2018 severe weather event that included the Marshalltown and Pella tornadoes, Keosauqua area tornadoes, and high winds and widespread power outages in Keokuk. Also, as with July 19th, Friday’s weather is very complicated.
An early look at location and timing
Eastern Iowa and Northern Missouri looks to be the area to watch. Waterloo down to Cedar Rapids and Iowa City could be the general area where individual supercell thunderstorms form in the early evening. Several of the high-resolution computer models want to then bring those storms together into a cluster or two that could deliver the action either eastward or southeastward (toward us), depending on the model. That scenario would paint damaging winds as the primary threat to us – later in the evening, say the 8:00pm to midnight range. It’s also still possible though that a tornado-producing supercell or two could develop or hold together closer to us.
We can look at more details as the weather warrants on Friday. Right now, it’s like a spot on a tooth the dentist keeps an eye on. It might become a cavity and it might not.