South winds are pulling in cloudiness and spotty rain showers, but also warmth. Temperatures will actually warm through the late evening hours. It’ll be showery Friday night. We’ll probably be in the mid 50s at midnight — mild enough that we may have some thundershowers from time to time overnight — and temperatures won’t fall appreciably until daybreak Saturday.
As our weather maker moves eastward, our warm south winds will quickly turn northerly. That’ll happen first thing Saturday morning, and the longer those north winds blow, the colder it will get. Temperatures will actually fall from around 50 at 5:00am into the middle to upper 30s by 10:00am or 11:00am and pretty well stay put for the afternoon.
The atmosphere above us will actually cool even more robustly than that. We’ll start the day with more early scattered rain showers. By 8:00am or 9:00am, many places, especially west of Burlington, Mount Pleasant for example, will begin to see a transition to some snow. I think the best snow window for Burlington will be from 10:00am to 1:00pm. Fort Madison and Keokuk may get more of a rain-snow mix during that time frame. Macomb will have rain showers Saturday morning. It’ll be hard getting the snow to mix in that far east — maybe early afternoon for a short period. It’ll be a very windy day for everyone — in the 20-to-35 mile-per-hour range.
This isn’t a heavy precipitation event — but enough to grab our attention being the first snow flakes of the season for most of us. Eastern Iowa certainly could get a dusting or even a bit better in the grass or elevated surfaces like your car, mailbox, and shrubs. Snow accumulation on anything is tough when temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s. It has to snow persistently and vigorously for a time. Road temperatures will be the warmest of all — making it even more unlikely, but not impossible, for a bit of snow to stick to the pavement and not melt immediately. It’s possible that a select few areas could see a short window with a little bit of snow on the pavement — if that happens, I think it will melt quickly as the snow stops falling.
Computer models are generally the most vulnerable for a time when we have big seasonal changes like this weekend will present, so we’ll see how this one comes together. There certainly could be a burst of pretty heavy snow in that 10:00am to noon window. If that happens, the scene portrayed in the featured photo above could become a reality for a few of us. Overall, this should be a very low impact event.
It’ll be clear with temperatures dropping into the middle 20s with gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour.
Sunny and low 40s
Mainly clear and low 30s