October weather outlook
A fortunate rainy set-up will bring the very decent prospects of 2 to 3 inches of total rainfall to the entire area from Thursday through Saturday morning — a very lucky break. This would prevent us from getting any further behind in rainfall deficits. This event by itself, if we cash in at around 3 inches, would already allow us a ‘neutral’ October — and even in our overall very dry pattern, we’re apt to see at least something more for rain in the 3 and a half weeks that will remain in the month!
Increasing the soil moisture content in general will change our prevailing atmospheric moisture content (humidity) as that water slowly evaporates from the soil. Then, when cold fronts and other rain-making weather do try to come through here, we then raise our chances for those systems to make the very most of that atmospheric moisture to actually create more rainfall — and to nudge our stubborn dry pattern aside.
We’ll see, but I don’t think this month is going to be as underwhelming overall rainfall-wise as what I thought just a week ago even. Average October precipitation, by the way, is 2.91″.
October’s typical high temperatures cool from the low 70s at the beginning of the month to the upper 50s by Halloween. Lows generally go from the lower 50s to the upper 30s as the month wears on. I don’t see any significant anomaly that would suggest we’ll skew from that trend considerably overall for the month. If anything, October may end up being a bit warmer than average.
Even with our exciting, newfound rain opportunities, there still ought to be plenty of very nice weather days this month for fall decorating, hay-rack rides, visiting pumpkin patches and corn mazes, doing lawn and landscaping work, football, homecoming celebrations, and sipping apple cider.
On average for Burlington, we see 29.82” of rainfall/melted down snow and ice for the calendar year to today. This year, we’ve had 25.45” (4.37” below average). Areas near Burlington are 4 to 5 inches below average on precipitation for 2017 to date. West of Burlington, approaching Fairfield, spots easily have twice that deficit.